Markets
Mechanism-level notes on deals, macro, and technology. Never a buy/sell call — just how things actually seem to work.
The SCA gives CLP a permitted ~8% return on fixed assets. That sounds safe until you realise the reference rate that makes 8% attractive keeps shifting. EnergyAustralia is the more interesting drag — three years of write-downs on a business they overpaid for during a different energy regime. The question isn't whether management knows this. It's whether the structure allows them to do anything about it fast enough.
Continue reading →Revenue pools in AI infrastructure are migrating toward whoever controls the transaction layer, not the model layer. x402 is early but the direction is right: if agents are making payments autonomously, the payment rail is infrastructure. That's a different business than anyone was building for two years ago.
Continue reading →More deals, lower average premiums. The obvious read is more competition for assets. The less obvious read is that buyers are getting more disciplined after the 2021–22 vintage proved expensive. The cross-grid convergence thesis holds but the arbitrage is getting priced in faster than it was.
Continue reading →